The usefulness of ecological inference for the estimation of voter transition rates

Publication Type:

Working papers

Source:

(2009)

Keywords:

ecological inference, voter transition rates, voting behaviour

Abstract:

During the Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 2008 Annual Conference, I had a discussion with another participant who told me that a paper he had submitted to a European political science journal was rejected, because his findings were based on ecological inference methods. On the contrary, in US based political science journals there are many examples of published papers which use ecological inference methods. This paper indicates that using ecological inference for the estimation of voter transition rates in the European countries can be a promising path. Simulation results presented in this paper indicate that the total fraction of the electorate misclassified by the used ecological inference algorithm ranges from 1.5% up to 13% with a mean value of about 6%. These figures show that ecological inference could and should be used for the estimation of voter transition rates.

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